New risk and vulnerability analysis:
Preventing damage from extreme weather events
New analysis models are needed to help prevent loss of life and damage to property from extreme weather events. Norwegian researchers are working on a new risk analysis method.
Several people died during the floods in France this spring, and the damage was devastating.
“The damage caused by these kinds of catastrophes could definitely be reduced if preventive measures were implemented at an earlier stage. Better risk and vulnerability analysis would help the authorities gain a clearer picture of the outcomes of flooding in a town, for example,” says head of research Kristina Heilemann at SINTEF research institute.
Kristina Heilemann is head of the AdaptCRVA project, which is being funded by the Research Council of Norway. (Photo: SINTEF) (Photo: SINTEF)
“Climate change is causing more extreme weather events, and we must expect more injuries and damage. The amount of precipitation will increase in countries like Norway in the years to come, and we must therefore expect more flooding. A great weakness of the current risk and vulnerability analysis methods is that they seldom include scenarios caused by climate change,” says Heilemann.
She is head of the AdaptCRVA project, which is being funded by the Research Council of Norway’s Programme on Societal Security and Risk (SAMRISK). The new analysis method being developed by the project will subsequently be refined for international use, under the auspices of the EU.
Climate change must be included
“The new risk and vulnerability analysis tool will be specially adapted to the consequences of climate change. It shall be simple to use, yet take more factors into account than the current systems,” says Heilemann.
The researchers have studied the existing methods and chosen to base the new tool on a relatively new risk analysis program, which they have adapted for use in this project.
Less damage
“Initially we are developing a tool for flood protection in towns, but the model can also be adapted for avalanches and landslides, etc.”
Risk and vulnerability analysis includes all kinds of threats to societal security from health scares to terrorism to forest fires. “The analysis tools identify the weak points that entail a risk. This is essential for effective prevention,” says Heilemann.
Norway will see increased precipitation in the years to come. This will lead to more flooding than we are used to. (Photo: Shutterstock)
“We want to develop a tool that can help reduce damage on a local level too. In Norway it is currently up to each individual municipality to develop these kinds of tools and systems themselves. Small municipalities simply cannot afford to do this. Our goal is that our analysis model will be able to be used on all levels in society,” says the researcher.
Discussion fosters understanding
Risk and vulnerability analysis is an excellent tool for making society aware of the risks and promoting discussion.
“It is difficult to predict the consequences of future climate change. However, we have already observed a number of consequences of different types of extreme weather events. The work on developing a risk and vulnerability analysis tool for the impact of climate change will encourage discussions, which will lead to greater understanding of the fact that we must take steps to adapt to changes in the climate,” says Kristina Heilemann.
| The AdaptCRVA project |
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Kristina Heilemann is head of the AdaptCRVA project, which is being funded by the Research Council of Norway’s Programme on Societal Security and Risk (SAMRISK). This interdisciplinary project brings together researchers within both engineering and social science from SINTEF, the University of Oslo, the Western Norway Research Institute (Vestlandsforsking) and Det Norske Veritas. A permanent Norwegian network is being established in this area through the project’s close collaboration with two other SAMRISK projects (DECRIS and CISS). |
- Published:
- 03.08.2010
- Last updated:
- 12.08.2010
