Aquaculture 2020: Transcending the Barriers - As long as...
In the course of 2003-2004, the Research Council of Norway organised a foresight analysis for Norwegian aquaculture. All in all, more than 70 people took part in a systematic dialogue about the future. The information presented here represents a very brief summary of an exhaustive report containing detailed analyses from the Foresight project:
Aquaculture 2020: Transcending the Barriers - As long as...
Summary - The Foresight Aquaculture 2020 Project
In the course of 2003-2004, the Research Council of Norway organised a foresight analysis for Norwegian aquaculture. The analysis was carried out in cooperation with Innovation Norway and with professional support from NIFU STEP. A broad-based project group comprising representatives from industry, research and the authorities was responsible for implementation of the process. All in all, more than 70 people took part in a systematic dialogue about the future. In the course of four sessions, a wide variety of perspectives emerged, and key persons from all aspects of the industry as well as from a number of the industry's most significant associated institutions came together in a creative and interesting dialogue about future developments. A report compiled during the process will provide a source of knowledge and inspiration for everyone interested in Norwegian aquaculture or in helping to shape its development.
Background for the project
The aquaculture industry has been subject to extremely dynamic development, and the export value of farmed fish now exceeds the export value of traditional fisheries. However, the industry is vulnerable in terms of competitiveness, as import restrictions in major markets combined with increased competition from other aquaculture nations makes it difficult for companies to maintain adequate profitability levels. There is a need for innovation to enhance competitiveness, and there is a need for research that can give impetus to innovation initiatives in which the companies and the industry choose to invest.
Linking together science and industrial wealth creation in fruitful ways is generally no simple task. It is problematic because, among other things, research and commercial activities take place in different contexts, have different objectives, and are characterised by different cultures, so that those involved often neither communicate well nor work together effectively. Despite such general tendencies, research has played an important role in the evolution of the aquaculture industry. A dialogue has taken place over time, and although it has not been free of conflict, it has offered mutual benefits, with the result that commercial industrial activities and research have helped to spur one another's development.
At the same time, a partnership between industry, the authorities and research is not enough on its own. In order for research efforts to yield productive results in the long run, it is important for researchers to look ahead and consider trends and events that will affect the industry's development in the future. One of the great challenges facing the Research Council of Norway will be to set research priorities that are relevant and constructive, both in relation to activities taking place within the industry itself and in relation to efforts at the political level with regard to regulation of the industry.
Against this background, the importance of the Foresight Aquaculture 2020 project becomes apparent. The process that was carried out created an arena in which it was possible to bring together talented and resourceful people from different backgrounds in a dialogue, across organisational and institutional dividing lines, about aquaculture's current situation and its development in the next 15-20 years. The Research Council of Norway has classified the Havbruk aquaculture research programme as one of its large-scale programmes, and the objective of the analysis was to generate a wide array of relevant ideas and perspectives that can be used in efforts to further develop aquaculture research. The goal was also to initiate a dialogue that would promote interaction and common visions, which in and of themselves enhance the players' ability to shape their future.
The foresight process method
Encouraging a group to fantasize freely about the future tends to be an enjoyable and rewarding exercise. To ensure that such an exercise concerning the future of aquaculture would generate constructive reflection and interesting perspectives and ideas, the project group chose to focus on the following:
" Utilisation of a scenario-based foresight method which had already culminated in significantly positive results. The method is based on broad-based participation and involvement, and on a gradual progression in which participants combine different steps (players and factors, mini-scenarios) to design diverse, cohesive scenarios that comprise both a description of the situation and a development narrative. The point of this was to generate dynamic and interesting pictures of the future in which the development narrative had a substantial degree of consistency and plausibility.
" The people who were invited to participate in the process were in possession of significant expertise. These included individuals with profound knowledge of the aquaculture industry and its activities as well as participants from outside the "fold", such as representatives of various organisations and companies, policymakers and government authorities, and researchers from areas other than those commonly associated with the aquaculture industry, such as material technologists and experts in information and communications technology (ICT). The participants' occupational background and personal characteristics played a crucial role in generating reflection and discussion at a level that would otherwise have been impossible to attain.
" In addition, the process was based on analytical efforts targeted towards understanding the structure and dynamics of the aquaculture industry. In this context, the NIFU STEP study of the aquaculture industry's innovation system was a key tool. Analytical perspectives from this study were actively applied when systematising the material developed during the foresight project.
The foresight project results
Foresight results are not scientific solutions, but they do encourage a dialogue about the future and which strategies may be plausible. The expertise of the parties involved makes the ideas relevant and interesting. The great diversity of perspectives and ideas generated by the project is most apparent in the 151 mini-scenarios that the groups created during its second session. Examples of the many imaginative ideas put forth include:
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The demand for safe food and ethical production methods (in relation to stringent animal welfare requirements) revolutionises the aquaculture industry
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Icelandic trawler companies, or foreign consumer products manufacturers, are buying into and taking control over the Norwegian aquaculture industry
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A company called Statfisk is established according to the Statoil model, revolutionising the industry's innovation system
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The industry is being destroyed by pollution and climate change
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The Norwegian industry stops producing, and instead specialises in competence and technology (related to health, breeding, feedstuffs, physical facilities, etc.), basing its livelihood on selling these to the international aquaculture industry
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Restructuring to accommodate new species and production locations makes it possible to base production on vegetable feed components
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Extensive use of gene technology makes it possible to breed new species with new and valuable characteristics, and facilitates the production of high-value feed from vegetable components
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A Norwegian-owned international chain of companies is established which distributes and sells fresh aquaculture products and fast food based on aquaculture products, as well as gourmet restaurants that use the same ingredients.
When it came to constructing scenarios during the third session, the project group considered it important to give the participants the greatest freedom possible to create their own pictures. The third session mainly consisted of group efforts in five groups, with each group being given the task of writing its own special scenario. To ensure variety and avoid overlap, the project group nonetheless chose to issue some concrete guidelines for the projects: each group had to include in its scenario that the aquaculture industry was facing very serious difficulties, which in the end it managed to overcome so that it was thriving by 2020. The following main challenges were specified for the various groups:
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A market-governed transition to species other than salmon and salmon trout
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A great shortage of marine feed components
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A political blockage of the opportunity to exploit advanced biotechnology
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Significant environmental problems have altered the conditions for aquaculture operations in Norway
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A consistent hands-off policy with regard to industry that renders impossible both government support of the aquaculture industry and an active innovation policy
The scenarios constructed were, in short, the following:
"A new industrial neutrality": Europe is the home market for the Norwegian aquaculture industry, and the industry's role as a partner in a comprehensive innovation system has been strengthened by active government involvement. Innovations in the transport sector have made it possible to transport large quantities of fish and other aquaculture products to markets all over the world.
"Market with no frontiers": Nutrition products are sold in open global markets, but in compliance with specific standards with regard to both products and processes. Marine food products have become essential, and Norway is a leader in the production and sale of red-fleshed fish.
"Sustainability": Climate change has forced the industry to make great changes, for example, much is produced in land-based facilities and sea-based production has been largely moved out of the country. Environmental problems have made it necessary to develop completely new and advanced production and monitoring systems, and Norway is a leading exporter of expertise and technology related to international aquaculture activities .
"Feed for all": The industry has struggled with a shortage of feedstuffs and environmental problems. But after a great deal of research effort, it has become possible to replace traditional feedstuffs based on marine components with feedstuffs based on industrially produced feed components and gene-modified vegetable components. Marine components are now largely used as food for human consumption. Since environmental problems have also been reduced through the development of new cleaning technology and adherence to binding international agreements, industry growth can start to climb once again.
"Aquaculture university": Norway plays a leading role in the management of marine resources, and the aquaculture industry has enjoyed a tremendous upswing with regard to both technology and competence since the establishment of a new, large, application-oriented aquaculture university. This community of experts developed cutting-edge expertise with direct commercial use, and also inspired other companies in the industry to tackle research and innovation tasks in a more goal-oriented and effective manner.
It was understood that the foresight analysis would lead to recommendations directed towards research, the authorities and the industry. The project group concluded its efforts in connection with Foresight Aquaculture 2020 by submitting a number of recommendations. Among the most central were:
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There is a need for greater and improved interaction between the industry's key players from the commercial sphere, from the research community, from the industry organisations and from the authorities.
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The commercial players must to a greater degree be informed about market developments and about how to develop their own strategic understanding of the processes of change that are taking place within relevant fields, in the markets and in the international political system.
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Greater priority must be given to innovation initiatives in which research is an important component of the effort to generate change and promote competitiveness.
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The various disciplines must be viewed in relation to one another as well as within the context of the industry's development strategies when it comes to carrying out research that will prove fruitful for the aquaculture industry in the long term.
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The authorities need to become actively involved in the industry's development by becoming an active partner in the industry's innovation system.
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Although biological and technological knowledge will be of fundamental importance for the industry's further growth, the focus must to a greater degree also be placed on ethical and ecological sustainability, the market and society.
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New technologies such as biotechnology, ICT, materials technology and nanotechnology may have a great impact on the further development of the industry.
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The authorities need to establish an industrial framework that places focus on increased profitability.
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The authorities must create a foundation for R&D activities that will attract foreign researchers to Norway.
The project group hopes that the foresight process and its results will be useful not only in terms of the Research Council's own programme development, but also by providing participants with learning and inspiration they can take back to their day-to-day activities. The project group also hopes that the view to the future and the cohesive framework that characterise a foresight exercise can help to strengthen the innovation efforts taking place in the Norwegian aquaculture industry.
The complete report
Aquaculture 2020 Transcending the Barriers - As long as...
The Research Council of Norway/Innovation Norway (2005)
Links
The large-scale programme
Aquaculture (Havbruk)
The Norwegian report
Havbruk 2020Grensesprengende - hvis...
- Published:
- 06.01.2005
- Last updated:
- 03.02.2006
